CBSE Class 12 Math 2011 Solved Paper

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Question : 29
Total: 29
Suppose 5% of men and 0.25% of women have grey hair. A grey haired person is selected at random. What is the probability of this person being male?
Assume that there are equal number of males and females.
Solution:  
Let the events M, F and G be defined as follows:
M: A male is selected
F: A female is selected
G: A person has grey hair
It is given that the number of males = the number of females
∴ P (M) = P (F) =
1
2

Now, P (G/M) = Probability of selecting a grey haired person given that the person is a:
Male = 5% =
5
100

Similarly, P (G/F) = 0.25% =
0.25
100

A grey haired person is selected at random, the probability that this person is a male = P(M|G)
=
P(M)×P(G|M)
P(M)×P(G|M)+P(F)×P(G|F)
[Using Baye’s Theorem]
=
1
2
×
5
100
1
2
×
5
100
+
1
2
×
0.25
100

=
5
100
5
100
+
0.25
100

=
5
5.25

=
20
21
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