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PASSAGE -3 One of the most remarkable features of 2050 will be that most of the 1960 babies will still be alive.
Why do I think that more than 50 per cent of the "boom babies" will survive to age 90 when today only 18 per cent do ? (Because of a biomedical revolution which is under way.)
In the last 20 years spectacular and unexpected changes have been taking place. (Deaths from major cardiovascular diseases have dropped 20 per cent; hypertensive deaths by two-thirds; stroke deaths by 20 per cent and death due to rheumatic heart disease by 50 per cent. Recent availability of drugs which offer control of hypertension explain part of the improvement, but not all. Whatever the reasons-availability of antibiotics, better health care, attention to diet, jogging, exercise-the effects in the United States are clear-cut and lasting.
It is also possible that by the middle of the 21st century some progress will have been made towards extending the human life span beyond 110 years.
But increased longevity and improved health are likely to have several drawbacks:
World population will be larger than it might have been. The most optimistic forecasts of demographers would place world population in 2050 at about 10,000 million (as compared to our current 4,200 million); with increased longevity, population is likely to be about12 , 000 − 13 , 000
Low birth rate and increased longevity combine to raise the average age of the population. In 1980 it was 30.1 years in the United States; by 2050 it will be almost 40 .
There is likely to be a period of difficult social adjustment as longevity increases. For example, most pension funds and annuities in the United States have been computed on the basis of higher death rates than we will achieve. This means that the funds will be paying out longer than expected, and this extra burden, added to other problems of pension funds, will undoubtedly put additional strains on them in the 1990 s and early in the next century.
With these12 , 000 − 13 , 000
On the "up" side are nascent technologies and infrastructural changes which improve distribution, reduce spoilage, bring new foods into wide use, improve productivity and increase the amount of arable acreage under cultivation. There is a really good chance that huge increases in food production can came from such developments as :
New plant varieties, obtained through genetic engineering, which are photosynthetically efficient, use less water and tend to be self-fertilizing; Improved uses of the ocean, including domestication of sea animals and aquaculture; and, Tropical agriculture, which will open to the world many billions of acres of land currently unusable. This requires development of fundamentally new farming techniques that utilize the patterns of heat and rain to advantage.
Why do I think that more than 50 per cent of the "boom babies" will survive to age 90 when today only 18 per cent do ? (Because of a biomedical revolution which is under way.)
In the last 20 years spectacular and unexpected changes have been taking place. (Deaths from major cardiovascular diseases have dropped 20 per cent; hypertensive deaths by two-thirds; stroke deaths by 20 per cent and death due to rheumatic heart disease by 50 per cent. Recent availability of drugs which offer control of hypertension explain part of the improvement, but not all. Whatever the reasons-availability of antibiotics, better health care, attention to diet, jogging, exercise-the effects in the United States are clear-cut and lasting.
It is also possible that by the middle of the 21st century some progress will have been made towards extending the human life span beyond 110 years.
But increased longevity and improved health are likely to have several drawbacks:
World population will be larger than it might have been. The most optimistic forecasts of demographers would place world population in 2050 at about 10,000 million (as compared to our current 4,200 million); with increased longevity, population is likely to be about
Low birth rate and increased longevity combine to raise the average age of the population. In 1980 it was 30.1 years in the United States; by 2050 it will be almost 40 .
There is likely to be a period of difficult social adjustment as longevity increases. For example, most pension funds and annuities in the United States have been computed on the basis of higher death rates than we will achieve. This means that the funds will be paying out longer than expected, and this extra burden, added to other problems of pension funds, will undoubtedly put additional strains on them in the 1990 s and early in the next century.
With these
On the "up" side are nascent technologies and infrastructural changes which improve distribution, reduce spoilage, bring new foods into wide use, improve productivity and increase the amount of arable acreage under cultivation. There is a really good chance that huge increases in food production can came from such developments as :
New plant varieties, obtained through genetic engineering, which are photosynthetically efficient, use less water and tend to be self-fertilizing; Improved uses of the ocean, including domestication of sea animals and aquaculture; and, Tropical agriculture, which will open to the world many billions of acres of land currently unusable. This requires development of fundamentally new farming techniques that utilize the patterns of heat and rain to advantage.
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