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In the decade to come, the United States. Europe, and Japan are likely to grow slowly. Their sluggishness, however, will look less worrisome when compared with the even bigger story in the global economy, which will be the three to four per cent slowdown in China, which is already under way: with a possibly deeper slowdown in store as the economy continues to mature. China‘s population is simply too big and aging too quickly for its economy to continue growing as rapidly as it has. With over 50 per cent of its people now living in cities. China is nearing what economists call "the Lewis turning point": the point at which a country's surplus labour from rural areas has been largely exhausted. This is the result of both heavy migration to cities over the past two decades and the shrinking workforce that the one child policy has produced. As growth slows in China and in the advanced industrial world, these countries will buy less from their export-driven counterparts, such as Brazil, Malaysia. Mexico. Russia, and Taiwan. During the boom of the last decade, of the emerging-market countries that have managed to sustain a five per cent growth rate for a full decade. Since 1930. 52 per cent were democracies and 48 per cent were authoritarian. Atleast over the short to medium term, what matters is not the type of political system a country has, but rather the presence o f leaders who understand and can implement the reforms required for growth.
In the decade to come, the United States. Europe, and Japan are likely to grow slowly. Their sluggishness, however, will look less worrisome when compared with the even bigger story in the global economy, which will be the three to four per cent slowdown in China, which is already under way: with a possibly deeper slowdown in store as the economy continues to mature. China‘s population is simply too big and aging too quickly for its economy to continue growing as rapidly as it has. With over 50 per cent of its people now living in cities. China is nearing what economists call "the Lewis turning point": the point at which a country's surplus labour from rural areas has been largely exhausted. This is the result of both heavy migration to cities over the past two decades and the shrinking workforce that the one child policy has produced. As growth slows in China and in the advanced industrial world, these countries will buy less from their export-driven counterparts, such as Brazil, Malaysia. Mexico. Russia, and Taiwan. During the boom of the last decade, of the emerging-market countries that have managed to sustain a five per cent growth rate for a full decade. Since 1930. 52 per cent were democracies and 48 per cent were authoritarian. Atleast over the short to medium term, what matters is not the type of political system a country has, but rather the presence o f leaders who understand and can implement the reforms required for growth.
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