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TS EAMCET 14-Sep-2020 Shift 2 Solved Paper
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© examsnet.com
Question : 38
Total: 160
A diagnostic test has the probability
0.95
of giving a positive result when applied to a person suffering from a certain disease, and a probability
0.10
of giving a positive result when given to a non-sufferer. It is estimated that
0.5
%
of the population are suffering from the disease. If this test is now administered to a person from this population about whom there is no information relating to the incidence of this disease and the test gives a positive result, then the probability that he is a sufferer, is
0.94545
0.2194
0.0455
0.9499
Validate
Solution:
Consider the events,
E
1
=
Person suffering from a certain disease
E
2
=
Person are not suffering from a certain disease
A
=
Diagnostic test is positive
P
(
E
1
)
=
0.5
%
P
(
E
2
)
=
99.5
%
P
(
A
∕
E
1
)
=
0.95
P
(
A
∕
E
2
)
=
0.10
Required probability
P
(
E
1
∕
A
)
=
P
(
E
1
)
×
P
(
A
∕
E
1
)
P
(
E
1
)
×
P
(
A
∕
E
1
)
+
P
(
E
2
)
×
P
(
A
∕
E
2
)
=
0.005
×
0.95
(
0.005
×
0.95
)
+
0.995
×
010
=
0.00475
0.00475
+
0.0995
=
0.00475
010425
=
475
10425
=
0.0455
© examsnet.com
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